Earned Run Average, zkr\u00e1cen\u011b ERA, je jedn\u00edm z nej\u010dist\u0161\u00edch indik\u00e1tor\u016f, jestli nadhazova\u010d skute\u010dn\u011b d\u00fdch\u00e1 zhruba \u0161pan\u011blskou pavu\u010dinu, nebo jenom h\u00e1z\u00ed m\u00ed\u010dky pod podm\u00ednky. Jedna \u010d\u00edslice m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout o s\u00e1zen\u00ed, o v\u00fdhr\u00e1ch, o \u010dem\u017e se bav\u00edme na baseballsazeni.com<\/a>. A\u0165 u\u017e m\u00e1\u0161 prach v nosu od statistick\u00e9ho pr\u00e1\u0161ku nebo jenom hraje\u0161 pro radost, ERA ti \u0159ekne, kolik pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b povolen\u00fdch b\u011bh\u016f nadhazova\u010d p\u0159id\u00e1 za dev\u011bt inning\u016f. Po\u010d\u00edtej s t\u00edm, \u017ee ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo = vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance, \u017ee se tv\u016fj tiket nevytrat\u00ed v prachu.<\/p>\n Ne\u017e za\u010dne\u0161 drtit \u010d\u00edsla, zajisti si spolehliv\u00fd zdroj \u2013 MLB API, Baseball-Reference nebo Statcast. P\u0159esnost je jako ostr\u00fd b\u0159it, bez n\u00ed se dr\u00e1hy rozbal\u00ed a v\u0161e se rozpl\u00fdv\u00e1. St\u00e1hni si posledn\u00edch 30 start\u016f nadhazova\u010de, ne jenom „season“ sumu. Mus\u00ed\u0161 m\u00edt okno, kde se zobraz\u00ed trend, ne jen jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd v\u00fdbuch.<\/p>\n V\u00fdpo\u010det je jednoduch\u00fd: (Earned Runs \u00d7 9) \u00f7 Inning Pitched. Ale pozor, pokud nadhazova\u010d je\u0161t\u011b neodst\u0159elil dost innings, ERA m\u016f\u017ee vypadat jako bl\u00e1to. Odstra\u0148 outliery \u2013 nap\u0159. extr\u00e9mn\u00ed v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00fdkony, kter\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fd\u010dtem, ne normou. Pak z\u00edsk\u00e1\u0161 \u201erealistick\u00e9\u201c ERA, se kter\u00fdm m\u016f\u017ee\u0161 hr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 liga se m\u011bn\u00ed podle sez\u00f3ny, pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch podm\u00ednek a m\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch bal\u00f3n\u016f. V\u017edy se pod\u00edvej na league ERA a rozd\u011bl rozd\u00edl. Pokud je nadhazova\u010d o p\u016fl bodu pod pr\u016fm\u011brem, je to ji\u017e sign\u00e1l, \u017ee m\u00e1\u0161 v rukou siln\u00fdho m\u00ed\u010de. Pou\u017eij relativn\u00ed metodu: ERA_diff = nadhazova\u010d ERA \u2013 liga ERA.<\/p>\n Co kdy\u017e hraje v Coors Field, kde je m\u00ed\u010d jako po\u0161le na dovolenou? Nebo v Yankee Stadium, kde se m\u00ed\u010d chov\u00e1 jako hork\u00fd brambor? Kontext je kr\u00e1l. P\u0159eve\u010f ERA na park-adjusted hodnotu. Najde\u0161 to ve statistik\u00e1ch park factor. Pak u\u017e nebudou pr\u016fm\u011bry jen pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edsla, ale re\u00e1ln\u00fd odraz v\u00fdkonu.<\/p>\n Jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9 vtipy jsou vtipn\u00e9, ale v s\u00e1zen\u00ed n\u00e1s zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed s\u00e9rie. Vypo\u010d\u00edtej posledn\u00edch 5 start\u016f ERA a pod\u00edvej se, jestli je klesaj\u00edc\u00ed nebo stoupaj\u00edc\u00ed. Momentum m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt tak rychl\u00e9 jako blesk, a pokud se nadhazova\u010d nach\u00e1z\u00ed v „hot streaku“, je to tv\u00e1 vstupenka. Pokud je naopak v deprese, rad\u0161i postav z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed zbra\u0148.<\/p>\n Sta\u010d\u00ed vz\u00edt kombinaci v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch faktor\u016f a d\u00e1t jim v\u00e1hu podle sv\u00e9ho modelu. Nap\u0159. 40\u202f% liga\u2011adjusted ERA, 30\u202f% posledn\u00edch 5 start\u016f, 20\u202f% parky a 10\u202f% run support. Vypo\u010d\u00edtej o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd po\u010det povolen\u00fdch b\u011bh\u016f a p\u0159eve\u010f na over\/under \u010di moneyline. A tady je to nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: nikdy ne\u010dekej, \u017ee ERA z\u016fstane konstantn\u00ed. Pou\u017eij p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f jako v\u00fdchoz\u00ed bod, nastav si limit a uzav\u0159i s\u00e1zku d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e se naplete v\u00e1nek. Nakonec zkontroluj, \u017ee se ti poda\u0159ilo zachytit ty nej\u010dist\u0161\u00ed data, a hned s\u00e1zej.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Co je ERA a pro\u010d na n\u011bj koukat Earned Run Average, zkr\u00e1cen\u011b ERA, je jedn\u00edm z nej\u010dist\u0161\u00edch indik\u00e1tor\u016f, jestli nadhazova\u010d skute\u010dn\u011b d\u00fdch\u00e1 zhruba \u0161pan\u011blskou pavu\u010dinu, nebo jenom h\u00e1z\u00ed m\u00ed\u010dky pod podm\u00ednky. Jedna \u010d\u00edslice m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout o s\u00e1zen\u00ed, o v\u00fdhr\u00e1ch, o \u010dem\u017e se bav\u00edme na baseballsazeni.com. A\u0165 u\u017e m\u00e1\u0161 prach v nosu od statistick\u00e9ho pr\u00e1\u0161ku nebo… Kroky anal\u00fdzy<\/h2>\n
1. Z\u00edskej \u010dist\u00e1 data<\/h3>\n
2. Vypo\u010d\u00edtej aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed ERA<\/h3>\n
3. Porovnej s ligov\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem<\/h3>\n
4. Vezmi v \u00favahu parky a protivn\u00edky<\/h3>\n
5. Sleduj trend a momentum<\/h3>\n
Jak p\u0159ev\u00e9st v\u00fdsledky do s\u00e1zek<\/h2>\n
V\u00edce<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/81"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lavaia.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}